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Dicing odds Started by: DeanWinchester- on Aug 02, '19 23:09
Total Net Credits: -1,064.00
Total Games Played: 11
Total Games Won: 2
Total Games Lost: 9

 

I've got to say that the odds for dice are absolutely  flawed I understand the desire to take money out of the game but 18% chance to win is unreal. Also the two wins I do have are cash bets. To me it seems the numbers behind dicing may need to be reworked because at this point it's literally there to take money out of the game.

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Total Games Played: 879
Total Games Won: 467
Total Games Lost: 412
Total Win Rate: 53.13

That's my last 30 days stats.
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I'd be curious to see the real numbers behind it, in this case. Because as long as it's fair across the board I have no issue in loosing, but if the numbers are not at least above 35% win chance I'd have a real issue.

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I wouldn't call 11 games a statistically representative sample (spoiler alert : it is not).

On the other hand, manually enforcing a more or less 50% odd chance to win on something like 11 games is *precisely* what a flawed system is. It becomes predictable. It can be abused. It's not cool.

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Squishy posted this previously:

https://i.gyazo.com/03618c40caa07c733af1320fd081e739.png

This was House's last 30 day stats.

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^ Thanks man, this makes me feel better
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The code is a straight 50/50, with no odd tilting in anyones favor.  With small sample sizes, you get grossly inaccurate numbers.

I purposely made the code simple, and straight forward so that I can share the code with trusted users who are programmers to look at if it ever comes under scrutiny.  The math is stateless, when it figures out what person A rolls and what person B rolls, it is stateless, it does not know or know care how up or down you are, how much you have or anything other than what its rolling currently.  It does not auto correct or get nudged in any direction.

Adding in any code to manipulate the wins/losses to ANYONES favor is an abuseable system and then I can't look anyone in the eye and say 'There is no skewing of numbers what so ever, its is 100% legit 50/50 code'

Looking at a data sample as small as yours, math will never be very accurate.  For example, with a data sample of just 2 that means that if you flip a coin the first time it should be heads, the second time tails.  If it is not tails then something must be broken.  Lol, of course not, the more you flip it the more accurate the random 50/50 is. Where random accuracy comes into play is with very large data samples.

For example, here is the most recent data from House without me having to dig into backups, it's a little over 3 million of the last bets.

House Wins 1,508,060 which is 49.9861% win ratio
House Loses 1,508,898 which is 50.0139% win ratio
House Ties 21,608 (Taken out of the equation so that both wins and losses total to 100%)

Taking into account the last 3,016,958 that ended with a win or a loss, house is actually down by 419.  But in a 3 million data sample, thats pretty damn close to 50/50!

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Yeah this makes me very happy to see that it is so evenly done, I’ve played more games myself and it’s evened out much better.

Like I said though as long as there is no unfair additions I’m happy
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Oh look, Deans making an ass outa himself again.
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Yeah Vaelin totally making an ass of myself huh man? Ensuring the games standards are fair are just beyond that of what the community should be doing eh?
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