Less math + More mystery = Winning

I didnt mean to come across as complaining i was just stating that for me to be on when durdens come I would have to be up from between 4 till 7 am in the morning to even get a look in , But in saying that sometimes ya have to do whats right for the Majority rather than the minority I dont expect it to change for say somebody like me in New Zealand when there is probably only like a max of 10 new zealand players here and that a big number I would think.

I guess that most of this conversation went over my head. I thought Durdens were spawned after a fixed amount of MIAs purchased. If that is the case, it depends solely on the userbase and I don't understand how we can make a calculation of how many hours they will take to spawn again.

Axe you are correct.

However with statistical modelling you can predict when they will arrive.

The reason for this being that everyone who can shoot shoots 3 MIAs every 48 hours.

From this you can hypothesise that the spawn rate will follow a normal distribution.

The site has a near to stable amount of people who shoot their allocation every time. Granted a few may just shoot some now and then but that does not really affect the model as a whole.

Some people know too much about the game for their own good :P hahahaha

Except that people training their gun in NY will most likely come back later or sooner, shooting their MIA's again. In other words, you're modelling a time dependant system at a time of changes (massive number of people making a new account, etc). Your conclusions can only be true for a short period of time... I would rather start my model right now if I were you. Things are back to a more stable state. Results should be more reliable.

Why is it when something isn't exactly the way people want it that means it needs changed? Just leave it how it will, it'll change in time. I don't see a point in setting a way for things to spawn just so it can be "fair"... UKers already have an advantage with IA racing seeing as most the game is asleep while UKers are IA racing anyhow. Oh well.

-iocaste. Never a truer word said :)

It would seem that unlike several weeks ago the MIA rate is indeed no where near a constant.

derp derp derp.

I would have to agree with io and Absolut.  The rate at which MIAs spawn will change itself naturally with time. It always does.

In what way are the Durden spawns premature? Are you saying that the times are too early for UK players? I remember this conversation being brought up in #divinelunacy not long ago. I haven't kept up with the recent spawns but from what Izzy showed, statistically, the times vary a great deal and therefore don't favor either geographic area. There may be times where spawns have occurred back to back within a certain time frame that may be "unfair" to UKers, making it seem like that is always the case but from what I remember, the spawns seem to happen at all times during the day.

Predicted Tyler Arrival 6/29/2011 13:29:00
Average spawn rate 5.45 MIAs per hour

I would just like to congratulate EvilClown- on his accurate prediction.

~C~

With the current topic at hand, I wouldn't consider that accurate. The prediction was almost five hours off. That's a big gap when we're talking about favoritism towards a specific time zone (interesting enough that there is a five hour differentiation between the UK and the east coast of the US).

All due respect, I'm not trying to discourage EvilClown- but I feel like this spawn shows that the current MIA spawns are not static considering the last Durdens came at around 17:00.  Correct me if I'm wrong, but I would imagine that UK'ers benefited more from this spawn (I'm not complaining). Just like any other model, there are many things to take into consideration but I feel like there is too much variance to track this "accurately." Maybe we'll see how it plays out with future Durdens.

I was kidding Grif, in light of him being miles away from the actual spawn time.

~C~

Grif, my initial hypothesis was incorrect. Since the post originated the MIA spawn rate has risen considerably and is still on the rise.

My original post and hypothesis did, I feel, not put across the point I wanted to make. That being at the time the MIA rate was static and had been for the last 2 spawns.

It was also static at 95hours, basically 4 days. The game received a forced spawn in the early hours. All I wanted to state was that due to the forced spawn the durdens were to be expected at the new forced spawn time 4 days on.

As time goes by and I get more and more info the accuracy of my prediction WILL increase.

Next durden spawn?

6/26/2011 0:07:00

This one will be even more accurate ;) +/- 2hours.

I don't understand why the spawns need to be predicted... Why can't we just be surprised about it and be happy when it happens :) We are actually lucky to have them at all, so why get all technical over it?

So the next Durden spawn is going to be 3 days ago?

I'm beginning to lose faith in your calculations.
~C~

WAHAHAHAHA

Forgot to add the 7 day shizzle :P

7/3/11 00:03