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Betting statistics Started by: Asylum on Oct 22, '15 06:11

It's well known that every casino in the world to some extent makes available or provides "odds" for their games. Could this possibly be implemented on each game?

I understand the game has to make money and that in real casinos you're still more likely to lose than win. However, on a game like dice where you can roll from 1-1000 and the house can roll 1-1000 it is mathematically illogical that after roughly 70ish+ bets that I did I won around 25.

That means the house has a 66.7% chance of winning. Which, without putting more money into the game, testing it is pointless. It's almost like... false advertising. I feel like it's pretty much robbing the players if you don't at least tell them they're going to get shafted.

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Example:

 

01:46 <MafiaReturns> Asylum accepted House's Tops dice bet. House rolled 552 and Asylum rolled 516. House won 20.00 credits.
01:46 <MafiaReturns> Asylum accepted House's Tops dice bet. House rolled 344 and Asylum rolled 267. House won 20.00 credits. House is on a winning streak of 5.
01:46 <MafiaReturns> Asylum accepted House's Tops dice bet. House rolled 878 and Asylum rolled 242. House won 20.00 credits. House is on a winning streak of 6.
01:46 <Asylum> dude
01:46 <Asylum> really
01:47 <MafiaReturns> Asylum accepted House's Tops dice bet. House rolled 862 and Asylum rolled 383. House won 20.00 credits. House is on a winning streak of 7.
01:47 <MafiaReturns> Asylum accepted House's Tops dice bet. House rolled 210 and Asylum rolled 906. Asylum won 20.00 credits.
01:47 <MafiaReturns> Asylum accepted House's Tops dice bet. House rolled 789 and Asylum rolled 313. House won 20.00 credits.
01:47 <MafiaReturns> Asylum accepted House's Tops dice bet. House rolled 93 and Asylum rolled 338. Asylum won 20.00 credits.
01:47 <MafiaReturns> Asylum accepted House's Tops dice bet. House rolled 118 and Asylum rolled 880. Asylum won 20.00 credits.
01:47 <MafiaReturns> Asylum accepted House's Tops dice bet. House rolled 283 and Asylum rolled 122. House won 20.00 credits.
01:47 <MafiaReturns> Asylum accepted House's Tops dice bet. House rolled 398 and Asylum rolled 302. House won 20.00 credits.
01:47 <MafiaReturns> Asylum accepted House's Tops dice bet. House rolled 727 and Asylum rolled 315. House won 20.00 credits.
01:47 <MafiaReturns> Asylum accepted House's Tops dice bet. House rolled 440 and Asylum rolled 206. House won 20.00 credits.

 

Out of 12 bets right there. The house won 9 times. How is that even possible. Swaps statistically has a better chance of winning, but tops should have the exact same percentage. A win on swaps is still 50/50 on numbers as tops is. Yet the percentage is showing at least 13% different on my lifetime stats. How is that possible?

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 mathematically illogical

This is the nature of random sequences. The "odds" are 50/50 on every game. Just because you had a stretch of games that didn't even out to 50/50 doesn't make it not random nor disrupt the odds of winning, and certainly doesn't make it "mathematically illogical," whatever the fuck that means.

If I play one dice game and I win, does that mean the probability of winning the next one is 100%? No. If I play two and lose both, does that mean dice is programmed to never let me win? No. The probability is always .5, you're just catching a bad streak in the same way that other players can catch good streaks. If you don't want to catch the bad streaks, don't play. Izzy frequently (or used to) publicized the winnings/losses of the House, and very many times was down a lot of credits and money. 

If you don't trust the casino's odds, don't play. It's that simple.

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https://gyazo.com/0d02f4a010f95cb69af40803f02a9b39 is our current rolling 30 days.  This page takes about 30 seconds to generate so I cant make it live-live, but if I get some free time, I can make it generate once an hour or so and give "almost live"

 

There is no fuzzy math in the dice, its all a 50/50 (Any php guys that you trust on the site I would be more than willing to show the code for verification).  Since its all 50/50, you will average 50% win ratio over a large amount of bets, over a short run, you could win a bunch in a row, or lose a bunch in a row, but the average with a large sample pool will be 50%.

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I have no doubts that dice operates on a 50/50 chance. But purely out of curiosity, I would actually like to see the dice code. I presume it's just a random number generator, but it intrigues me to see how that's done by professionals.

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Cato I understand what you're saying. Squishy I understand what you're saying as well. In fact, I tested it more so with bets between players.

My concern is when you do 12 bets and somehow comes out to winning 3 hands. Which I realize, is a small pool of test. However, winning 23ish out of 70+ish bets. That just makes me worry if something might be fishy.

I can't read code really. I mean, I might be able to figure some of it out, but realistically I have to have faith in what you say is true.

My concern really came up more so when I watched dozens of people complain that it's streaky. Then when I played there was no winning really.

I was actually hoping to use this thread to open up about discussing all the gambling. Such as blackjack, it's rules, how many decks, possibly coding in a single or double deck blackjack. More so, a table blackjack. The idea is to beat the house. The more hands on the table if you work together you can do a bit better from real life experience.

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You do realize you are asking the "house" to put in a ton of work (and therefore money) into creating a way for you to beat the house more consistently, right? Just sayin...
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Asylum, it's very difficult to judge dice in the manner you did.

You may personally only have that amount of wins, but you aren't the only one playing. The time it takes you to so those 70 games could have other users winning and losing so your pool is completely inaccurate. I would suggest for a proper test to camp out in irc #dice and you'll see all users usage and can use the data properly.

To save you time; I've done it and it is indeed 50%. (Not recently I might add)
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I've been doing it more often. I've noticed that it is pretty much 50/50. However, seeing the statistics helped me run numbers on it.

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