So ever the speaker on MR and always one to entertain discussions in the streets, Ive had friends in RL and on MR alike bounce some thoughts and ideas off me about this current COVID19 crisis at the helm. Now before I do much else talking, should be noted I live in USA. So most of the stuff I will speak of will pertain to the USA. However since it is a Pandemic...what I say here will effect the vast majority of the people here. 

First things first. I want to thank the administration...no not the futile POTUS. But the CreamCheese thats fire. I want to thank you for having implemented a PSA in the form of "WashYourHands" jails and Durds. I hope that point is well taken by our membership. It is really the best way for US as INDIVIDUALs to play our part. Another way we can play our part is by 'social distancing' or quarantining. Here is a short video by the World Health Organization on why its important to do this. Watch till the end please. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dSQztKXR6k0

After all that I want to talk about a couple of other things. Most of the panic has already ensued. The run on the grocery stores have already happened and a rationing of products is already happening. Us in the USA are actually moving towards a total lockdown of the country. Its not there yet. But systematically we are getting there. And as the above video highlighted, its necessary. And will save A LOT of LIVES. 

As this shutdown ensues. Make sure you guys have about 4-6 weeks of non perishable items. Pasta, Tuna cans, lentils, rice, etc. Anything that will survive even if we loose power. Cause that is a possibility. Drinking water obv, but we should be ok to survive with tap water in the developed world. Additionally stack up on any disinfectants avail. Keep some isopropyl alcohol or hydrogen peroxide in general on hand, just in case someone gets hurt or infected. You will need to disinfect the place and person regularly, if that happens...God forbid. 

Now everything I've said so far is probably stuff you all have heard. And anyone thats telling you this is a 'hoax' 'will pass' or 'is fine' is lying to you. Cause atm we really don't know what the curve is going to look like. A highly esteemed medical institute ran a regression on three models of transmission. These are the findings. And I say this BEFORE ANYTHING else. DONT PANIC. These are hypotheticals....if we do our jobs right. The numbers under will be smaller...by a LOT. I cant say this enough. WE ALL MATTER AS INDIVIDUALS in this. Yes the youth are less susceptible to this virus. But however they can be carriers. Think of your nieces and nephews, your grand parents. Even your parents to an extent. All these populations are susceptible. So for once be proactive in being quarantined...stay at home, do US all a favor. 

These are the 3 models: 

1) No self quarantine. No distancing. The immunity will spread, Darwin will take its course. (English method, this is changing btw)

2) Do semi quarantine. Do distancing when needed. And keep things going for the most part. (Italian model...Brits are getting here now)

3) Implement distancing, shutdown everything systematically. (USA model atm). 

If we run the first model on the USA. 80% population gets infected. About 4mill dead. 

We run the 2nd model on the USA. 60% population gets infected. About 2.5 mill dead. 

We run the 3rd model on the USA. 5-10% of the population gets infected. Deaths will be in several tens of thousands or about 3-5% of the infected. That number will get to almost 10-15% for the elderly. 

However I cant emphasize this enough. You see how those millions in dead turn to several thousands? Yes every life matters. But thats a HUGE suppression of fatalities. And it requires two things on our individual parts. Wash hands, keep things sanitary and social distancing. 

Any other questions. Drop me a MM. Always willing to soundboard for anyone. 

Wish you all the best, 

Stay healthy. Take care of your loved ones. 

And stay calm. There is always a way. 

Don't panic, but also here are some arbitrary numbers from some unnamed medical institute inferring MILLIONS will die to the flu's ugly cousin. Have you looked at the recovery rates? Hospitalization rates? Recovery rates? I should have stopped when you mentioned the POTUS was futile, it was clear at that point you were wearing a tin foil hat - but all the fancy text formatting sucked me in.  

Don't panic, but also here are some arbitrary numbers from some unnamed medical institute inferring MILLIONS will die to the flu's ugly cousin. Have you looked at the recovery rates? Hospitalization rates? Recovery rates? I should have stopped when you mentioned the POTUS was futile, it was clear at that point you were wearing a tin foil hat - but all the fancy text formatting sucked me in. 

I didnt want to talk politics, but sure. Since this is a PSA of sorts. Ill answer your questions. And if you want me to break down the POTUS in this crisis for you. I will happily do that. Since I voted for the guy...regretfully now. 

So first of all do you understand Virology? Do you know how the flu is different than its cousin the COVID19? 

I imagine not. Considering your response. So let me educate you. 

Most viruses or any living matter is consisting of chromosomes, genetic information to be exact. This is how viruses, bacterias, cancers replicate and spread. Effectively increasing the onset of disease. Now back to your question. How are they different? Most bacterias have a cell wall and hence why people are prescribed antibiotics for it. Most AB's first break the cell wall so that the genetic protein is defenseless and then your bodys immune sys goes to work. 

COVID is novel in the sense that its built like a virus. With the fortifications of bacteria. We don't have medications for viruses. All we have is vaccines. Which can prep your immune sys for the disease. But its not a 'cure'. 

This is where the misinformation comes. Where people start to talk about how the Flu is worse or similar to Covid. You know how many people get infected per year from the common Flu? You know what the fatality rate is? Ill tell ya you expert in virology. Its .001%..basically a 1/10 of a 1% chance someone dies from it. (Need a calculator?)

Now lets take a look at the "hoax" that was going to level off about a week ago. Its fatality rate on avg is anywhere between 1-15%, depending upon the population. Age, hygiene, access to medical resources. All these matter. For the elderly, chronic disease patients and infants the rates are going to be higher. For the rest of us, it wont be that bad. However we are all able carriers. 

Now the next part of your convo about the hospitalizations? Recoveries. Well you know how many tests China runs in a week for Covid? Or Korea runs in a week for Covid? Ill tell ya you expert on virology. Korea does about 66k tests per week. China is well over 100k per week. You know how many testing kits we have in the USA per million people? Its about 25 and increasing...per million people. 

I digress. To talk a little politics now. 

Thank God that the American population was enraged at the slow response of the current administration. And basically forced them to completely drop the whole political 'hoax' BS. And actually focused on what was needed. The whole bravada tone has changed for Trump now. Cause hes probably seeing hes about to be the reason for like 10k plus deaths in the country...if not more than that. We haven't even hit the plateau stage yet...hell we aint even peaked yet. 

Take this on for size. I know a cardiologist that lives in Texas. Lives with his 80 year old parents. Has all the symptoms of COVID19. They wont give him the test. Hes been told to self quarantine in the house and not leave his room. And imagine. Hes a physician. Hes got pull in the system. And he cant get a test done....there are several thousands like this. 

With the current testing thats going on now. I think were up 6k infected today? With 25 test kits per million. 

China has 2,800 testing kits per million. Korea has 3,600 testing kits per million. 

Now we the great American nation has how many again??? Pathetic....but its a hoax no? 

Most infected will go thru the virus wont even knowing. The ones that are critical will either be tested or die from a unnamed disease. 

And it will do something very important. It will KEEP THE NUMBERS DOWN for reelection. 

Trump is smarter than the country thinks. There is a reason we don't have enough tests. 

Is he best for the country??? That the rest of us will decide. Ive certainly made my decision from the handling of this crisis. 

Yes Mr-Incredible, I agree with you there. The government is finally after weeks of watching. Is actually choosing to do something. Instead of selling false rhetoric. I think trump said it best "No one knew it was going to be like this". 

Well people in other countries did. Medical professionals did. The only people that didn't, were the ones trying to keep the roaring economy going to win reelections. 

He put his reelection over the lives of Americans. Thats unacceptable. 

However. The pressure and outrage has now forced him to change this whole perspective about this. This crisis will define his presidency. Whether he calls it a hoax or otherwise. 

And yes. Were extremely lucky to be living in a country with such great resources...however not enough tests. lol

Not only did you fail to respond to several of my points, you further made yourself look like a tin hat wearing, fear mongering idiot. Keep the numbers down for reelection? You're fucking dense mate. And I don't give a shit what vet tech you know down in Alabama or whatever you said, it doesn't make you the expert nor the voice of reason. 

How about this. Wash your hands, avoid large gatherings, and stop buying all my toilet paper. Don't show severe symptoms? You don't get a test. Since supplies are limited, I'm not wasting tests over everyone with the sniffles and a concern. We all interact with 'vulnerable' members of the population, that doesn't make anyone more or less special than the next. 

Remember H1N1? Ebola? SARS? Relax. We're going to be fine, we just have to use some common sense. 

I wouldn't say he put his reelection before American lives necessarily. I just think he was trying to emit a calm vibe, and before he knew it shit hit the fan. It is what it is at this point and I could see people using that argument. His response will definitely make or break his reelection. I feel like something this tragic/unfortunate brings unity to the country. It's something we definitely need.

It's unfortunate that money drives the world, but that's just a reality. Sometimes it's hard to look at the long term effects of something but I feel like everyone's main concern is the economy, not necessarily lives.

Economic stimulus packages are being pumped out. I think a 3rd one is in the works to give Americans 2 checks of 1k each at least if not more. I just hate to think that so many lives will be loss. The Americans that were a part of an era that made us what we are.

For the economy part. Its necessary, its peoples livelihood. It needs to be kept going. Nothing supersedes life security though. Im with you on this. 

And yea, the vibe was definitely calm and all. Only problem is, it was almost a neglecting kinda vibe. Its almost like "hey, if we don't think about it. Maybe it wont effect us" type. Or maybe it wasn't. Who knows. All I know is, he cut 15 Billion in health funding last year. And gutted the National Crisis response team, that his predecessor had put in place. If we had that all in place. Maybe we wouldn't be in this predicament. 

And yes, all tragedy leads to better things. Perhaps maybe unity for the country. Which would be nice for once. 

Not only did you fail to respond to several of my points, you further made yourself look like a tin hat wearing, fear mongering idiot. Keep the numbers down for reelection? You're fucking dense mate. And I don't give a shit what vet tech you know down in Alabama or whatever you said, it doesn't make you the expert nor the voice of reason. 

 

How about this. Wash your hands, avoid large gatherings, and stop buying all my toilet paper. Don't show severe symptoms? You don't get a test. Since supplies are limited, I'm not wasting tests over everyone with the sniffles and a concern. We all interact with 'vulnerable' members of the population, that doesn't make anyone more or less special than the next. 

 

Remember H1N1? Ebola? SARS? Relax. We're going to be fine, we just have to use some common sense. 

I know this is hard for you to understand. So let me try to do this in just numbers. Maybe, just maybe...it will get thru to you. 

Flu last year. 19Million cases. 180k hospitalizations, 10k deaths. 

Thats 0.0005 percent fatality rate. Thats like 1/5 of a 1%. 

And a 0.05 percent chance of catching it. So 5% of the population was infected. 

Now COVID19 so far. And we've not peaked yet. 

9k Cases. 155 deaths. 

Thats a 0.017 fatality rate. Thats 17% MUCH higher than your common cold. 

And it was 500 cases 10 days ago...

Now for the fear mongering? Im sorry but what the stats above show is. This is not a "hoax". This is not something that will "go away in a week".

The administration was ill prepared for this virus. Korea had their first case the same day as USA. Our curve is peaking. Their almost out of the woods. And their smashing it when it comes to testing. Think about this for a second, Korea outperformed the USA and we have more resources than them. Sticking point? You guessed it...leadership. 

Are USA really locked down that much?
I'm in Italy and we are more locked than it seems, we should go out just to work (and most things are closed), and to buy first necessity things.

Likely there are a lot of asymptomatic infected, but counting just the known infected, here in Italy the lethality is about 10%

Great post, its something everyone should be taken seriously, its shutting our economies down aswel as the more important thing of people are actually dying!

Gidan,

Most of us are not forcibly "locked down". I can't speak for every city in the US, but my city, Indianapolis is very much closed. Our Mayor made an emergency order pretty much trying to close everything. Many businesses are forced to close, but many others have chosen to follow the Mayors request... Very odd right now...

Gidan im from one of more populated States in the country. Were the hardest hit state atm it seems in NY. Our governor and NYC mayor actually implemented emergency and precaution measures before the president did that for the country. Part of the reason is also due to the close concentration of people as well. There are nearly 30million people in NYS, suppression here in NYS would be huge in terms of transmission. 

Its why its so essential to lock everything down. Even if its voluntary. 

However NYC/NYS have shut down all bars and public events or gatherings for the past week or so. 
Heres hoping it helps with the plateau of the curve. Although, were really spiking now. 

I'm praying for all of this.

Its 10 days after, when I first wrote this thread. 

I don't even feel like doing a update. Its too damn depressing. 

No equipments for hospitals. No defense production act invoked.

States are damn near begging for more ventilators. 

Our POTUS says "Its a great leverage tool for negotiations" 

Great YOU Winning, matters more than American Lives. 

And there talking about opening up the economy. 

So that anyone that avoided the virus. Now stands to experience the same thing. 

Last but not least. We wouldnt send soldiers to battle w/o gear and air support. 

Why are we sending health workers to war w/o any gear or support? 
Its sad...its come to this. 

What the fuck are you even talking about mate. Do you wait until your American president tells you to eat breakfast? I thought you had state governments as well, are they helpless? So when NYC decides to close bars last week....after being the epicenter in the USA, is that Trump's fault also? This is not the doing of one man. America is not Nazi Germany, it is not Russia. Other people can act as well. I laugh when I see this huge system fail and all the window lickers think it's one man's fault.

For me, from a UK perspective, it didn't matter what the government said from a political perspective, most people wouldn't follow the instructions.

Between political bias, Brexit bias, etc people were going to do what they want.   People still panic buy here, tubes are packed on way to work thanks to the mayor of London, and the underground is that much of an incubator for the virus now, I would rather risk being stabbed and having my bike stolen when getting around London than getting on the train.

I stay as a key worker, so I continue to have to go to work during the crisis, I have to deal with the extra physical and mental strain on people, and have to deal with say bob coming in with a runny nose knowing he could have corona but he is trying to hide it.   It didn't matter what stimulus was offered to support people to stay off work, or extra access to sick pay, people are happy to go out and spread sadly.   Kids still get told to clear off by the police, who break up groups now and question you why you are shopping.

The last few days of sunshine have seen record numbers coming to tourist attractions in the UK as people off work and being paid for it, decided I could self isolate and save a life, or I can go have fun instead, so Lake District, Snowdonia etc was suddenly taking record footfall.   No social distance, no worries about risk from other people, no 2m distance between people.   So for all the police action, government policy, supermarket etc efforts, People will do what they want to infect who they want and at the same time, invent new tik tok challenges like licking toilet seats to catch Corona sadly.